Air Traffic Controller Workload Level Prediction using Conformalized Dynamical Graph Learning

Air traffic control (ATC) is a safety-critical service system that demands constant attention from ground air traffic controllers (ATCos) to maintain daily aviation operations. The workload of the ATCos can have negative effects on operational safety and airspace usage. To avoid overloading and ensure an acceptable workload level for the ATCos, it is important to predict the ATCos' workload accurately for mitigation actions. In this paper, we first perform a review of research on ATCo workload, mostly from the air traffic perspective. Then, we briefly introduce the setup of the human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulations with retired ATCos, where the air traffic data and workload labels are obtained. The simulations are conducted under three Phoenix approach scenarios while the human ATCos are requested to self-evaluate their workload ratings (i.e., low-1 to high-7). Preliminary data analysis is conducted. Next, we propose a graph-based deep-learning framework with conformal prediction to identify the ATCo workload levels. The number of aircraft under the controller's control varies both spatially and temporally, resulting in dynamically evolving graphs. The experiment results suggest that (a) besides the traffic density feature, the traffic conflict feature contributes to the workload prediction capabilities (i.e., minimum horizontal/vertical separation distance); (b) directly learning from the spatiotemporal graph layout of airspace with graph neural network can achieve higher prediction accuracy, compare to hand-crafted traffic complexity features; (c) conformal prediction is a valuable tool to further boost model prediction accuracy, resulting a range of predicted workload labels. The code used is available at \href{https://github.com/ymlasu/para-atm-collection/blob/master/air-traffic-prediction/ATC-Workload-Prediction/}{$\mathsf{Link}$}

IDE spatio-temporal impact fluxes and high time-resolution studies of multi-impact events and long-lived debris clouds

The purpose of the Interplanetary Dust Experiment (IDE) on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) was to sample the cosmic dust environment and to use the spatio-temporal aspect of the experiment to distinguish between the various components of the environment: zodiacal cloud, beta meteoroids, meteor streams, interstellar dust, and orbital debris. It was found that the introduction of precise time and even rudimentary directionality as co-lateral observables in sampling the particulate environment in near-Earth space produces an enormous qualitative improvement in the information content of the impact data. The orbital debris population is extremely clumpy, being dominated by persistent clouds in which the fluxes may rise orders of magnitude above the background. The IDE data suggest a strategy to minimize the damage to sensitive spacecraft components, using the observed characteristics of cloud encounters

Investigating Team Coordination in Baseball Using a Novel Joint Decision Making Paradigm

A novel joint decision making paradigm for assessing team coordination was developed and tested using baseball infielders. Balls launched onto an infield at different trajectories were filmed using four video cameras that were each placed at one of the typical positions of the four infielders. Each participant viewed temporally occluded videos for one of the four positions and were asked to say either “ball” if they would attempt to field it or the name of the bag that they would cover. The evaluation of two experienced coaches was used to assign a group coordination score for each trajectory and group decision times were calculated. Thirty groups of 4 current college baseball players were: (i) teammates (players from same team/view from own position), (ii) non-teammates (players from different teams/view from own position), or (iii) scrambled teammates (players from same team/view not from own position). Teammates performed significantly better (i.e., faster and more coordinated decisions) than the other two groups, whereas scrambled teammates performed significantly better than non-teammates. These findings suggest that team coordination is achieved through both experience with one’s teammates’ responses to particular events (e.g., a ball hit up the middle) and one’s own general action capabilities (e.g., running speed). The sensitivity of our joint decision making paradigm to group makeup provides support for its use as a method for studying team coordination

Defining the methodological challenges and opportunities for an effective science of sociotechnical systems and safety

An important part of the application of sociotechnical systems theory (STS) is the development of methods, tools and techniques to assess human factors and ergonomics workplace requirements. We focus in this paper on describing and evaluating current STS methods for workplace safety, as well as outlining a set of six case studies covering the application of these methods to a range of safety contexts. We also describe an evaluation of the methods in terms of ratings of their ability to address a set of theoretical and practical questions (e.g. the degree to which methods capture static/dynamic aspects of tasks and interactions between system levels). The outcomes from the evaluation highlight a set of gaps relating to the coverage and applicability of current methods for STS and safety (e.g. coverage of external influences on system functioning; method usability). The final sections of the paper describe a set of future challenges, as well as some practical suggestions for tackling these. Practitioner Summary: We provide an up-to-date review of STS methods, a set of case studies illustrating their use and an evaluation of their strengths and weaknesses. The paper concludes with a ‘roadmap’ for future work

Recipient mucosal-associated invariant T cells control GVHD within the colon

Mucosal-associated invariant T (MAIT) cells are a unique innate-like T cell subset that responds to a wide array of bacteria and yeast through recognition of riboflavin metabolites presented by the MHC class I–like molecule MR1. Here, we demonstrate using MR1 tetramers that recipient MAIT cells are present in small but definable numbers in graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) target organs and protect from acute GVHD in the colon following bone marrow transplantation (BMT). Consistent with their preferential juxtaposition to microbial signals in the colon, recipient MAIT cells generate large amounts of IL-17A, promote gastrointestinal tract integrity, and limit the donor alloantigen presentation that in turn drives donor Th1 and Th17 expansion specifically in the colon after BMT. Allogeneic BMT recipients deficient in IL-17A also develop accelerated GVHD, suggesting MAIT cells likely regulate GVHD, at least in part, by the generation of this cytokine. Indeed, analysis of stool microbiota and colon tissue from IL-17A–/– and MR1–/– mice identified analogous shifts in microbiome operational taxonomic units (OTU) and mediators of barrier integrity that appear to represent pathways controlled by similar, IL-17A–dependent mechanisms. Thus, MAIT cells act to control barrier function to attenuate pathogenic T cell responses in the colon and, given their very high frequency in humans, likely represent an important population in clinical BMT

Development and Reporting of Prediction Models: Guidance for Authors From Editors of Respiratory, Sleep, and Critical Care Journals

Prediction models aim to use available data to predict a health state or outcome that has not yet been observed. Prediction is primarily relevant to clinical practice, but is also used in research, and administration. While prediction modeling involves estimating the relationship between patient factors and outcomes, it is distinct from casual inference. Prediction modeling thus requires unique considerations for development, validation, and updating. This document represents an effort from editors at 31 respiratory, sleep, and critical care medicine journals to consolidate contemporary best practices and recommendations related to prediction study design, conduct, and reporting. Herein, we address issues commonly encountered in submissions to our various journals. Key topics include considerations for selecting predictor variables, operationalizing variables, dealing with missing data, the importance of appropriate validation, model performance measures and their interpretation, and good reporting practices. Supplemental discussion covers emerging topics such as model fairness, competing risks, pitfalls of “modifiable risk factors”, measurement error, and risk for bias. This guidance is not meant to be overly prescriptive; we acknowledge that every study is different, and no set of rules will fit all cases. Additional best practices can be found in the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines, to which we refer readers for further details

Policies, Political-Economy, and Swidden in Southeast Asia

For centuries swidden was an important farming practice found across the girth of Southeast Asia. Today, however, these systems are changing and sometimes disappearing at a pace never before experienced. In order to explain the demise or transitioning of swidden we need to understand the rapid and massive changes that have and are occurring in the political and economic environment in which these farmers operate. Swidden farming has always been characterized by change, but since the onset of modern independent nation states, governments and markets in Southeast Asia have transformed the terms of swiddeners’ everyday lives to a degree that is significantly different from that ever experienced before. In this paper we identified six factors that have contributed to the demise or transformation of swidden systems, and support these arguments with examples from China (Xishuangbanna), Laos, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. These trends include classifying swiddeners as ethnic minorities within nation-states, dividing the landscape into forest and permanent agriculture, expansion of forest departments and the rise of conservation, resettlement, privatization and commoditization of land and land-based production, and expansion of market infrastructure and the promotion of industrial agriculture. In addition we note a growing trend toward a transition from rural to urban livelihoods and expanding urban-labor markets

Contribution of copy number variants (CNVs) to congenital, unexplained intellectual and developmental disabilities in Lebanese patients

International audienceBackground: Chromosomal microarray analysis (CMA) is currently the most widely adopted clinical test for patients with unexplained intellectual disability (ID), developmental delay (DD), and congenital anomalies. Its use has revealed the capacity to detect copy number variants (CNVs), as well as regions of homozygosity, that, based on their distribution on chromosomes, indicate uniparental disomy or parental consanguinity that is suggestive of an increased probability of recessive disease. Results: We screened 149 Lebanese probands with ID/DD and 99 healthy controls using the Affymetrix Cyto 2.7 M and SNP6.0 arrays. We report all identified CNVs, which we divided into groups. Pathogenic CNVs were identified in 12.1% of the patients. We review the genotype/phenotype correlation in a patient with a 1q44 microdeletion and refine the minimal critical regions responsible for the 10q26 and 16q monosomy syndromes. Several likely causative CNVs were also detected, including new homozygous microdeletions (9p23p24.1, 10q25.2, and 8p23.1) in 3 patients born to consanguineous parents, involving potential candidate genes. However, the clinical interpretation of several other CNVs remains uncertain, including a microdeletion affecting ATRNL1. This CNV of unknown significance was inherited from the patient's unaffected-mother; therefore, additional ethnically matched controls must be screened to obtain enough evidence for classification of this CNV. Conclusion: This study has provided supporting evidence that whole-genome analysis is a powerful method for uncovering chromosomal imbalances, regardless of consanguinity in the parents of patients and despite the challenge presented by analyzing some CNVs

Hidden in the Middle : Culture, Value and Reward in Bioinformatics

Bioinformatics - the so-called shotgun marriage between biology and computer science - is an interdiscipline. Despite interdisciplinarity being seen as a virtue, for having the capacity to solve complex problems and foster innovation, it has the potential to place projects and people in anomalous categories. For example, valorised 'outputs' in academia are often defined and rewarded by discipline. Bioinformatics, as an interdisciplinary bricolage, incorporates experts from various disciplinary cultures with their own distinct ways of working. Perceived problems of interdisciplinarity include difficulties of making explicit knowledge that is practical, theoretical, or cognitive. But successful interdisciplinary research also depends on an understanding of disciplinary cultures and value systems, often only tacitly understood by members of the communities in question. In bioinformatics, the 'parent' disciplines have different value systems; for example, what is considered worthwhile research by computer scientists can be thought of as trivial by biologists, and vice versa. This paper concentrates on the problems of reward and recognition described by scientists working in academic bioinformatics in the United Kingdom. We highlight problems that are a consequence of its cross-cultural make-up, recognising that the mismatches in knowledge in this borderland take place not just at the level of the practical, theoretical, or epistemological, but also at the cultural level too. The trend in big, interdisciplinary science is towards multiple authors on a single paper; in bioinformatics this has created hybrid or fractional scientists who find they are being positioned not just in-between established disciplines but also in-between as middle authors or, worse still, left off papers altogether